Can someone explain what makes the dollar fall?
There are many influences and people fight over which is in effect. Faith in the economy is one of them. It is based on faith not fact so it can change at the drop of a hat.
Supply and demand can then take over. If everyone wants to buy dollars to put in an American bank because interest rates are high, then it costs more Euros, or whatever, to buy them - the dollar value goes up. Interest rates go down, then sell dollars for Euros, or whatever, and the dollar goes down.
That is just one of many reasons for the dollar to go up or down. I'm sure that you will now see some serious arguing from economic geniuses as to what is actually at work. Just remember, it is all speculation and theory.
quote:If everyone wants to buy dollars to put in an American bank because interest rates are high, then it costs more Euros, or whatever, to buy them - the dollar value goes up.
This is probably the single biggest factor. Not only because interest rates are high, but because of confidence in the dollar in general.
Our current regime is trying to falsely prop up our economy by lowering interest rates to unheard of levels thereby stimulating foreign exports (in the name of economic growth) while at the same time reducing the attraction of foreign investment.
It is IMO almost completely dictated by our government's actions, rather than world trends.
Sorry - I couldn't resist.
'Even if you're on the right road, you will get run over if you just stand there'. - Will Rogers
The root of the problem isn't consumer confidence, thats the effect. The true problem lies in a number of things such as our trade deficit(buying more foreign goods than we produce), insanely out-of-control government spending, and many other factors.
The 'cure' for these things is for the fed to lower interest rates(aka print more money). Its the creation of money out of thin air that pays for an estimated 30% of our government spending every year. I havn't paid $40,000 in taxes since 2003 for our war in Iraq, that money has to come from somewhere.
As a result of this inflation, we get lax credit policies, which drive up prices of homes, cars, food, gasoline simply because there is more USD in circulation. This affects oil on the world market because everyone else has to sell their currency and buy dollars to purchase oil. A weak dollar means oil costs ALOT more for everyone else in the world... nobody likes this.
Our economy has actually declined greatly since 2001 if you price it in euros, CAD, AUS, gold, or almost any other currency in the world because we print money faster than they do.
From the limited reading I do - there are so many different factors. Many of which are explained in this thread.
From an travel perspective, this makes it more expensive for Yanks to go outside the US, but cheaper for non-Yanks to come here and travel (Yes - I know that is obvious). We have seen a trend of more Aussies/POMs coming to the US in the past year, as well as buying our US priced trips on BWA which confirms this thinking.
From an investment perspective, I have been dumping my little IRA into some emerging market funds (VEIEX) the past 5 years. I reckon some other countries economies will be growing faster over the next 10 years then the US. Not sure how all this affects the dollar etc - but this global economy stuff can super fun (Hey look how cheap it is here!) - but can also bite us in the arse (Damn - europe is 60% more expensive now than it was 7 years ago)
I am interested in learning more about this - but the books/mags that discuss it bore me. Thanks everyone for sharing.
Couldn't resist that. Hehehe.
Have a nice day, Whistler.
Dear Lord, please make me chaste but not just yet. SMC.
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