cornercorner

Falling Dollar

Discuss long-term and Round the World Travel. Share experiences, tips and encourage others to take the plunge. Help others plan their itineraries and budgets for upcoming epic adventures.

Postby Theresa_B » March 19th, 2008

Fortunately, when we planned our RTW trip, we decided to stick with the developing world, so we're not being affected quite as much. We weren't planning on going to Europe or Australia, where I think it hurts the most. But it is frustrating to watch the dollar continue to weaken, especially since we've pretty much brought it upon ourselves by being such a consumerist nation that we buy, buy, buy without ever considering how we are going to be able to pay for it. The war and the ever-increasing national debt certainly doesn't help either.

I think eventually the dollar will rise (though we'll never see the days again when you could buy a Euro for only 80 something cents...boy was that a good time to be living abroad), but it's going to take time. My attitude...carpe diem. No point in putting travel off, because there are no guarantees.
Theresa_B
Guidebook Dependent
 
Posts: 21
Joined: January 4th, 2008


This thread doesn't have any tags.

You can still check out the tag index though.

What are tags?

Postby 2wanderers » March 19th, 2008

quote:
Wow, that is a bold statement. Tell that to the Italians or the Argentines.
I'm not familiar enough with Argentina to comment, but the thing with Italy is that it's part of a larger currency, so it's performance is linked to Europe as a whole, not to Italy.

It's a problem with a lot of broad based currencies. The CAD is doing decently now, largely thanks to the resource economies, which is killing off Ontario's manufacturing economy.

Also, the statement may be bold, but I think over the long term, it's accurate.

What seems likely is that US debt problem will be decreased in real value through inflation. I expect the downward trend will take a long time - possibly a few years - to correct, but I stand by my prediction that the value will come back, eventually.
User avatar
2wanderers
Extra Pages in Passport
 
Posts: 3185
Joined: August 20th, 2003
Location: Edmonton, Canada

Postby Stoo » March 19th, 2008

quote:
What seems likely is that US debt problem will be decreased in real value through inflation. I expect the downward trend will take a long time - possibly a few years - to correct, but I stand by my prediction that the value will come back, eventually
I'm thinking maybe not, at least not to the strength it had five-ten years ago. Why? Broad and deep inflation in all parts of the US economy.
"No. I was talking about the hooker in Reno" -- BostonBill @ the BOOTCOM10 Hostel
User avatar
Stoo
Extra Pages in Passport
 
Posts: 3367
Joined: August 28th, 2005
Location: Zürich

Postby elAdi » March 19th, 2008

quote:
I'm not familiar enough with Argentina to comment, but the thing with Italy is that it's part of a larger currency, so it's performance is linked to Europe as a whole, not to Italy.


I'm referring to pre-Euro times. La lira, oh la lira. It was always a good laugh for us Swiss. Wink
My personal travel website
Cycling from Indonesia to India (09-11) Fabebook Page
----------------------------------------------
"Nationalism is an infantile disease, the measles of mankind." Albert Einstein
User avatar
elAdi
Extra Pages in Passport
 
Posts: 2815
Joined: December 27th, 2002
Location: Currently cycling from Indonesia to India

Postby minerguy » March 19th, 2008

I've been posting on a similar thread in the "Funding Your Travel Habit Section". So far it is talking about ways to put USD into other currencies to help out.
http://boards.bootsnall.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/93300904316/m/43400168416

Personally, I returned from a SEA trip last year and didn't think I got hit too hard. I plan on going to Central and South America next in a few years. Those choices are where I wanted to go and not chosen because of the dollar.
"I always have something up my sleeve" - AJV
User avatar
minerguy
Knows What a Schengen Visa Is
 
Posts: 425
Joined: July 16th, 2005
Location: Texas - Hill Country

Postby WT » March 20th, 2008

Well, we saw this one coming and if you read the beginning of our blog in 2006 when we took off, that is why we picked 2005 to sell our home and impacted our decision to do a world tour. We were almost certain that the dollar had to go down and that housing was going to lead to a world wide toxic banking mess.


I hoped it would not be as bad as some have predicted ( some say it will be the end of the dollar and a world depression worst than the Great Depression) but it is not looking good and it has barely begun. No one knows how it will unfold exactly, but I do not see much hope for the dollar for some time.

We knew we would be spending a lot of time in Europe, so we got out of the dollar when it was high.We put the money we needed for Europe into Euros and Pounds. We stay in Europe for much cheaper than most RTW families stay in SE Asia at the cheapest spots. Some of it is because we took that risk ( looks smart now, but it was a risk when we did it) but part of it is we tend to be good at living large on little. Some of that is about slow travel, staying in rural areas, knowing when and how to splurge etc.

Things get trickier as time goes on and we do stay very involved watching the world financial picture. My concern now is about the euro and pound. I think they have a good chance of going down in the near future as well.

I think one has to find ways to protect yourself and make the most of ones money, but I think it may be trickier today than ever before. I think this guy gives a much more accurate picture of the problem. It looks like stagflation seems to be the problem which is recession and inflation at the same time.

This problem is not only bad for travel,it is bad for life, so there is no where really to hide or escape it. If it goes to the worst scenario,everyone will be affected. They say when the U.S gets a cold, the world sneezes and the U.S. has the worst cold of it's life due to corrupt government, mortgage business and banks.


Some say that something good will come from this crisis and I hope that is true. It is a shame that people are missing Europe due to the exchange rate.

I don't think there is any one answer, like with most things, people need to do their homework and find a way to make it work for them. If you travel slow ( air fare is the biggest cost and we have only taken one expensive flight in 19 months of travel) and live like a native and have an intention to live large on little, it really can be done anywhere. I would not hold my breath on the dollar going up significantly, but my concern about the dollar would not be just about travel, because that weak fiat currency affects everything in your life. You just see it more in travel, but it is affecting everything.

My brother in law just got laid off from a job that he has done for 27 years. Sad to say, there is more of that coming and the housing crash has not even begun yet, really. Sooner or later, you have to pay the piper and things have been out of balance for a long time.
http://www.soultravelers3.com

I am always doing that
which I can not do,
in order that
I may learn how to do it.
PABLO PICASSO
User avatar
WT
Street Food Connoisseur
 
Posts: 645
Joined: February 19th, 2006
Location: 3 years into an open ended world tour as a family

Postby Roosh » March 20th, 2008

The falling dollar is making Brazil expensive for Americans as well.

If you hold dollars, there is a bank which lets you put dollars in other currencies, such as the euro or yen. It's http://www.everbank.com. Also FDIC insured.
User avatar
Roosh
Lost in Place
 
Posts: 70
Joined: May 21st, 2007

Postby WT » March 21st, 2008

Yes, we use everbank, but I think you have to be thoughtful on how you use this as there are fees and I believe you have to transfer it to another bank that takes the currency that you want to use.

We have a bank in Europe, but if you do not have a bank to transfer it to, that will add to your challenges. You also want to keep a close eye on banks these days as many of them are in trouble and some will fail. Lets not forget all the middle class people in Argentina that lost everything & could not get their money out of banks or those that lost everything in the savings and loan fiasco. It is a time for caution and awareness.

Currency traders do have risks, so keep that in mind as well and do lots of reading and research on the topic before jumping in.
http://www.soultravelers3.com

I am always doing that
which I can not do,
in order that
I may learn how to do it.
PABLO PICASSO
User avatar
WT
Street Food Connoisseur
 
Posts: 645
Joined: February 19th, 2006
Location: 3 years into an open ended world tour as a family

Postby Llalewyn » March 21st, 2008

The Dollar will eventually go up in value in comparison to other currencies.

Since the dollar is so incredibly weak right now the last thing you want to do is invest in other currencies. The people who made money off this decrease are those who invested in other currencies when the dollar first began its downward spiral in 03/04. The lower the dollar goes the less likely it will fall further. Eventually the currency markets will naturally adjust. I'm not certain if the Dollar will ever go back to being on par with the Euro or not but it will raise in value.
User avatar
Llalewyn
World Citizen
 
Posts: 1148
Joined: October 3rd, 2005

Postby Capt Steve » March 21st, 2008

I wish I'd taken all my dollars with me to Europe when I moved there in 2003... who knew... oh well --

i'm one of those guys who should say, "if you want good investing advice, watch what i do, and do the opposite." Smile
User avatar
Capt Steve
Extra Pages in Passport
 
Posts: 2729
Joined: May 25th, 2004

Postby Llalewyn » March 21st, 2008

I bought into Euros in late 04 and now I'm moving them back to Dollars. I only wish I had more more at the time. I would be doing really really good right now. Dancer


100th post. I finally made it.
User avatar
Llalewyn
World Citizen
 
Posts: 1148
Joined: October 3rd, 2005

Postby Capt Steve » March 21st, 2008

well yeah, i too *some* with me, but i guess I, like you, wish i'd taken 'em all.

it was nice to get paid in euros from 03-05 -- and be able to shop online at US stores and have the stuff shipped to me cheap.

guess it worked out ok...
User avatar
Capt Steve
Extra Pages in Passport
 
Posts: 2729
Joined: May 25th, 2004

Postby quimby » March 21st, 2008

On the flip side, my sister who racked up some hefty student loans in the states and has been trying to pay them off in euros these past 5 years is now ahead of the game instead of behind. But now I can't afford to visit her. uuggh.
quimby
Knows What a Schengen Visa Is
 
Posts: 318
Joined: January 2nd, 2007

Postby WT » March 21st, 2008

quote:
The Dollar will eventually go up in value in comparison to other currencies.



That is an opinion and not everyone agrees with it. There are plenty of books that talk about this being the end of the dollar and all paper money.

I am not saying this is going to happen. I don't think anyone KNOWS how this will unfold. So that is more my point.

You may indeed be right, but then again, you might be totally wrong. I actually hope you are right because the death of the dollar would hurt the world badly.

Some think that this might be the beginning of the end of the dollar as the reserve currency of the world. Remember the British pound was once the world's reserve currency. Things change. It is hard to guess now if this will happen or not, but there are those that would like this to happen as the reserve currency is an inviable position.


When the dollar left the gold standard, the problems really began as there is nothing backing the paper money. I am not a Ron Paul fan at all ( hate some of his positions) , but he is one of the few who is telling the truth about some of our money woes.

Some think this is a transitional phase from the U.S. losing power and China gaining to eventually become the leading power in the world.

There is a huge financial crisis going on, much worse than most people realize. Some think that all the paper currencies in the world are in trouble. In times of crisis, people tend to gravitate to gold as a hedge and there is a reason why precious metals are doing well as the dollar sinks.

I don't think things are black and white enough these days to predict that the dollar will eventually go up. It could play out many different ways. The world has yet to face the kind of crisis that we are in now, but similar events in history have not been kind. I think we are at the very beginning of this pain cycle.

I sure would not be getting into dollars today, but each to his own. Even keeping money in treasuries today is losing money if you look at the true inflation rates.
http://www.soultravelers3.com

I am always doing that
which I can not do,
in order that
I may learn how to do it.
PABLO PICASSO
User avatar
WT
Street Food Connoisseur
 
Posts: 645
Joined: February 19th, 2006
Location: 3 years into an open ended world tour as a family

Postby WT » March 21st, 2008

BTW, around 2003 or 2004, as I looked around me at the insane real estate in my area that made no sense, I went to libraries and book stores and got books like Rubino's " How to profit from the coming Real Estate Bust".

We even brought the best ones with us on our RTW tour. It is amazing to see how many of his predictions have come out to be true!! I thought he was over the top when I first read him, but most of what he said has been right on.


I have not read his popular book on the collapse of the dollar, but it may be worth reading. If nothing else it gives one a different perspective than much of what one hears in the media and ideas on how to profit from a collapsing dollar.


Sadly, the average American is thinking more about Paris Hilton and Britney Spears, than how to protect themselves and it will be too late for many by the time they wake up.
http://www.soultravelers3.com

I am always doing that
which I can not do,
in order that
I may learn how to do it.
PABLO PICASSO
User avatar
WT
Street Food Connoisseur
 
Posts: 645
Joined: February 19th, 2006
Location: 3 years into an open ended world tour as a family

PreviousNext

Return to Around the World and Vagabonding Travel

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests




closer